After
consolidating his power domestically by dismissing top military generals, the
newly-elected Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi probably reasoned that it is time
he turn his attention to foreign policy. A series of
his recent diplomatic activities such as visiting China, attending the
Non-Aligned Movement summit in Iran and his visit to the US set for late
September raise the question of
whether post-revolution Egypt is in the process of rolling out a new active,
independent foreign policy.
There
is little doubt that the 2011 revolution broke out primarily because of
domestic reasons, such as the deterioration of socioeconomic conditions,
rampant corruption and former President Hosni Mubarak's ill-advised plan to
groom his unpopular son, Gamal, as his successor. However, foreign policy
issues cannot be totally excluded from the factors that drove millions of protestors
to demand his ouster. In his last years in office, Mubarak's policies drew
closer to the policies of the US/Israeli axis, which came at the expense of an
acute drop in legitimacy at home.
Mubarak
harbored a deep-seated sense of distrust towards regional militant Islamic
groups, particularly Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), then
Egypt's most organized opposition group. He collaborated with Israel in the inhumane
blockade of Gaza, exported scarce gas to Israel and turned a blind eye to
Israel's maltreatment of the Palestinians.
A
departure from this past is almost inevitable. The new president would most
likely reconsider his ties with Israel and search for a new formula of
relations with the US.
With
regard to Israel, the honeymoon is undoubtedly over. The peace treaty will be
kept, but Egypt may attempt to amend some of its provisions, particularly to
allow for the deployment of more Egyptian troops in the Sinai Peninsula
(demilitarized by the Camp David Accords) to curb the rising violence of local
militants. Despite the MB's heated rhetoric, there will be no return to war,
but neither will there be a close alliance.
A
totally new chapter with the US is not in the offing. Even before Morsi's
election as president, the MB made overtures to the US administration, assuring
her of continued political and economic cooperation, and guaranteeing that the
peace treaty with Israel will not be annulled. Egypt is still in need of the US
generous military aid, and Washington's political support is crucial to secure badly-needed
financial assistance from international financial institutions. Egypt has
already requested a $4.8 billion loan from with the International Monetary Fund.
But
Morsi will attempt to diversify his international alliances, and lessen his
predecessor's dependence on the Americans. In addition, and in light of Egypt's
current economic malaises, its government will seek to bolster its economic
relations with the world's major economic powers, including China and the
European Union.
It
is within this context that Morsi's visit to China should be viewed. Modern
Egyptian-Chinese relations date back to 1956, when late President Gamal Abdel-Nasser
recognized the People's Republic of China against the backdrop of Western denunciation.
Since then, economic relations have constituted the backbone of the bilateral
ties. Egypt is looking forward to attracting Chinese investors and tourists,
and various cooperation agreements have been signed during Morsi's visit.
The
future of Egypt's diplomatic relations with Iran represents the real litmus
test for change in Egyptian foreign policy. Bilateral relations have been
severed for more than thirty years. The Iranians have since Khomeini's death
sought a rapprochement with Egypt, but Mubarak was not interested. With him
gone, the road seems to be paved for the resumption of relations. Indeed, a few
days ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said that both countries
are moving toward restoring diplomatic relations.
How
soon will that happen remains unclear. Morsi would first have to alleviate the
fears of Gulf States leaders, who are concerned an improvement in Egyptian-Iranian
relations would tip the regional balance of power toward Iran. Needless to say,
the Americans share the same reservations. But mending fences with Tehran would
signal Morsi's determination to pursue an independent foreign policy that is
neither constrained by Egypt's "special" relationship with the US nor
by its need of financial assistance from oil-rich Gulf States.
The
foreign policy challenges facing today's Egypt are abundant. Morsi will have to
decide where Egypt stands on a number of fast-evolving regional issues, such as
the civil war in Syria, the US-Iran discord, and Arab-Israeli relations. Moreover,
there is a general feeling in the country that, under Mubarak, Egypt abandoned
its responsibilities and forfeited its leading role in the Middle East. Morsi
is expected to restore Egypt's strategic and political clout, and he may have
just taken the first step toward that goal.
*
This article was published in Global Times (China) on August 30, 2012.
